Mason Lynch Rambles at Facebook: Episode 2

brz 2016
Today’s free advertising goes to Subaru and their beautiful BRZ Coupe. See the pictures. No need for more words.

What’s on my mind, Facebook? I’m curious if anyone has any guesses about when and where the Subaru BRZ might hit the bottom of its depreciation curve. I would expect that the depreciation is determined by some fairly quantifiable factors, such as:

  • how favorably the car is rated by owners
  • brand name
  • popularity vs number produced
  • reliability and build quality

…and perhaps several more. If you could find patterns in data from cars that have already depreciated, couldn’t you construct a reasonably accurate forecast of any given car’s future depreciation? This could be applied to relatively low-production but popular vehicles, to project when they will be at the bottom of the depreciation curve, where they have nowhere to go but up.

You could also apply the same principles to monetary appreciation of classics by examining the common features found in them, and how the culture affects the appreciation of certain cars. Sometimes they were used in movies, famous races, commercials, posters, media, basically anything automotive we saw in our childhood that appealed to our sense of wonder…and appreciation for, shall we say, coolness.

So in conclusion, Facebook, I think what’s on my mind is that it must be possible to mathematically predict which new cars will be most likely to become valuable in the future market, and when they will hit the bottom of depreciation.

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